Trump Says His Beef Tariff Plan Will Cut Prices by 25% — Economists Aren’t So Sure

Gina PaceWed, August 26, 2026 at 4:03 AM UTC

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Credit: Photo by George Pachantouris / Getty ImagesKey points -

On August 21, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day waiver on tariffs for up to 300,000 of imported lean beef trimmings.

The move is an effort to lower ground beef prices, which have rapidly risen this year as the American cattle herd faces significant challenges and is at its lowest level in 75 years.

Agricultural economists warn that while the waiver may help lower prices some, it likely won’t yield the 25% cost reduction Trump promises, and farmers have raised concerns over what it means for them.

If you’ve picked up a package of ground beef at the grocery store lately, you might have recoiled at the price per pound. As the cost of beef has skyrocketed this year, a protein we once considered a staple now increasingly feels like a luxury. Late last week, President Donald Trump proposed a potential — and controversial — solution to the problem.

On August 21, Trump announced on Truth Social that the government would temporarily waive tariffs on beef imports in an attempt to lower prices for the commodity. He also promised, “We have a commitment that this beef will be sold at 25% below current market prices.” Trump’s directive, which has not yet been formalized through an executive order, centers on a 90-day waiver for up to 300,000 metric tons of imported lean beef trimmings.

Under standard United States trade rules, foreign suppliers can export a set amount of beef into the country at low duty rates. Once that annual quota is filled, any additional beef shipped to American ports is subject to a steep 26.4% penalty tax — known in the trade world as an out-of-quota tariff. By pausing those penalty taxes through late fall, the White House hopes it can flood the market with cheaper beef trimmings to lower ground beef costs and give American cattle herds room to rebuild.

Although Trump pledged that imported meat would be sold at a steep discount, livestock economists caution home cooks not to expect an immediate 25% drop on their supermarket receipts. “I don’t know where the 25% came from,” says Dr. David Anderson, a professor of livestock economics at Texas A&M University.

Anderson suspects that Trump’s claim conflates the 26.4% tariff rate with retail shelf pricing. While waiving the duty allows ground beef processors to source foreign trimmings more cheaply, the professor explains that this “is only one part of the final retail price.” He points out that processing, transportation, packaging, and retailer margins all contribute to retail pricing. In other words, eliminating a 26.4% duty does not guarantee that those savings will be passed on directly to the consumer after meat has gone through the production and supply chains.

Both Dr. Anderson and Oklahoma State University livestock marketing specialist Dr. Derrell Peel further caution that foreign lean beef trimmings rarely end up in grocery store meat cases. “Very little imported beef is used in retail grocery ground beef,” Peel explains. “Most is used in food service, especially in quick-service restaurants.”

Processors blend lean foreign meat with fatty domestic steak trimmings to achieve precise lean-to-fat ratios for fast food burger patties. Consequently, the resulting cost savings are more likely to cushion fast-food restaurant margins than they are to translate into discounted ground chuck at your local supermarket.

Import tariffs undeniably raise consumer costs. After all, paying a 26.4% out-of-quota tax on foreign beef trimmings inflates ingredient expenses for meat processors. However, economists emphasize that foreign tax policy isn’t the primary driver behind record-high ground beef prices at the grocery store.

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According to reporting by PBS NewsHour and market analysis in Beef magazine, beef prices are soaring because the U.S. cattle herd has shrunk to its lowest size in 75 years due to severe drought, high feed costs, and elevated interest rates across the Great Plains. Because the U.S. produces most of its beef domestically, it’s feeling the effects of a notably smaller herd.

Furthermore, the 90-day tariff waiver does not apply to top U.S. trade partners such as Mexico or Canada, whose processed beef is already duty-free under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). While the U.S. recently began a phased reopening of southern border crossings for live Mexican feeder cattle, Anderson notes that imported calves must spend months fattening in domestic feedlots — offering no immediate price relief for shoppers. Overall, the professor emphasizes that the tariff waiver “doesn’t really mean 300,000 additional tons [of beef] on top of whatever else was coming.”

Related: The Best Grocery Stores for Buying Ground Beef, According to a Butcher

American cattle producers and industry groups, including the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA), have sharply criticized Trump’s announcement as cattle futures markets fell. Fall is a pivotal season when ranchers decide whether to sell young calves or retain heifers to rebuild their herds for future years. Expanding the domestic herd means holding back female cattle to breed, rather than sending them to market — a multi-year investment that temporarily tightens meat supplies today to build lower prices tomorrow.

Strong market prices provide the vital economic signal ranchers need to justify their long-term commitment. “High prices are the market signal to producers to raise more cattle,” Anderson says, warning that policy actions that depress prices “undercut the market incentive to produce more.” NCBA chief executive officer Colin Woodall echoed this concern in a statement from the association, arguing that temporary market interventions “sacrifice long-term stability for short-term messaging.”

Ultimately, Peel emphasizes that political interventions don’t offer a permanent solution and “take a short-term and long-term toll on the U.S. cattle industry.” Because herd expansion takes years, home cooks hoping for immediate relief from the high price of ground beef will likely need to wait out the clock and turn to a more affordable protein in the meantime.

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Source: “AOL Money”