Payroll Disparity in Remaining World Series Contenders Could Affect Impending Lockout

Lincoln Zdunich Sun, October 11, 2026 at 6:49 AM UTC

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IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

And then there were four. After the Cleveland Guardians completed a comeback for the ages on Saturday night to advance to the ALCS, only the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays remain. Of those four remaining teams, three rank in the bottom half of MLB team salaries. The Dodgers are second in all of baseball in payroll. Is it possible that such payroll disparity could affect the ongoing CBA negotiations and looming lockout? Here is a quick look at how it could all play out.

Scenario 1: A Los Angeles Threepeat

Oct 7, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez (37) hits a single against the Atlanta Braves during the seventh inning in game four of the NLDS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Dodgers have been marked as the villains of baseball. Los Angeles has won two consecutive World Series championships and is actively bidding for a third. In doing so, they would become the first National League franchise to ever accomplish the feat. The New York Yankees have accomplished the feat three times and the Oakland Athletics have done so once. It would be an incredible achievement, but it seems slightly tainted this time around. The Dodgers have spent more money than just about anyone else. The club ranks second among all teams in payroll for 2026. The only organization ahead of them is the New York Mets.

It’s Not Just Spending … But It Is a Lot of Spending

But L.A. has some incredible talent. They’ve managed to hand out the right contracts at the right times. The bigger issue is that they’ve dominated the free agency market in recent years to a point that seems ridiculous. Los Angeles spent $1.025 billion in 2023 alone. That spending went toward just two players: Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The two have been incredibly impactful and are a huge reason why the Dodgers have had the success that they have. But L.A. didn’t stop after that. They’ve spent another $629 million in free agency since then. That was on just five players. Put those numbers together and you get $1.65 billion spent on seven players. That’s roughly $236 million per player.

No one is able to spend at that level for a sustained amount of time. It’s a ludicrous amount of spending that seems bound to stop soon, especially with Dodgers owner Mark Walter being investigated by the Department of Justice, FBI and SEC for alleged multi-billion-dollar loan fraud. However, Los Angeles just keeps on winning. Much of that is still due to some incredible talent evaluators. MLB.com ranked the Dodgers’ farm system as No. 1 across all of MLB as recently as August 16. Between those two things, the Dodgers have turned into quite the juggernaut.

What Happens if the Villain Wins?

Should L.A. complete their bid for a threepeat, MLB might use it as an argument to force the Players’ Association to agree to a salary cap/floor system for the first time in history. The players went on strike in 1994 to stop that from happening, so it’s unlikely that attitudes would change now. That being said, sentiment around the league is that the Dodgers are playing with dirty money. Players might see it as the only way to create true competitive balance, regardless of whether or not that’s true.

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Scenario 2: Small Market Success

Oct 3, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Drew Rasmussen (57) looks on in the first inning in game one of the ALDS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs against the New York Yankees at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Pablo Robles-Imagn Images

The three other remaining teams rank 19th (Brewers), 28th (Rays) and 30th (Guardians) in MLB team salaries for 2026. That payroll disparity is more significant than one might immediately realize. According to Spotrac, Milwaukee, Tampa Bay and Cleveland’s combined payroll for 2026 is roughly $317 million. Los Angeles alone is $339 million. That’s a level of imbalance that makes it seemingly impossible for teams to compete. The Dodgers steamrolled Milwaukee when the two teams faced off in the NLCS last season. Their NLCS rematch will start on Sunday. If Los Angeles pulls off the same feat to advance to the World Series, it would raise eyebrows about how higher payroll equals success.

The Cheapest Winners

On the other side of the bracket, Cleveland and Tampa Bay will duke it out as two of the league’s lowest payrolls. The two organizations have a combined payroll totaling $170 million. That combination is less than the payroll of 15 individual MLB teams. Yet somehow each team won their division handily. The Guardians won 85 games to edge out the Chicago White Sox for the AL Central crown, while the Rays won 98 games to beat the Yankees in the AL East. Cleveland spent an estimated $882,353 on each win. Tampa Bay spent $979,592. The level of success is incredibly rare in recent history. The last time a team that cheap won that many games was when the 2023 Baltimore Orioles won a miraculous 101 games with a payroll of $71 million ($702,970 per game).

If either of the American League teams end up winning the World Series, it will be hard for MLB to argue for a salary cap. The MLBPA would be able to easily refute that given the way the 2026 playoff bracket worked out. Sure, spending money helps, but there’s still competitive balance in the league. It’s difficult to disagree with that logic. Anyone could do what Los Angeles is doing; they just don’t. It might be a hard truth to swallow, but it’s certainly one that won’t affect players getting paid what they deserve. At the end of the day, that’s what matters for the MLBPA in their labor negotiations.

Effects on the Lockout

Recently, an American League executive said that the 2026 postseason results would have zero impact on the impending lockout. That seems somewhat baseless. In the same article, a National League executive said that “I think they’ll play some role, but they won’t be the end all, be all.” That assertion offers a more nuanced perspective on how postseason results could influence negotiations between MLB and the MLBPA. Regardless, the playoffs aren’t going to determine whether or not there’s a salary cap/floor system implemented. However, they could certainly determine how long these discussions last, and how much ammunition each side has to support their respective arguments.

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Source: “AOL Money”