Claude AI’s XRP Price Prediction: Will It Drop to $1.17 or Rise to $1.70 First?
Claude AI’s XRP Price Prediction: Will It Drop to $1.17 or Rise to $1.70 First?
Sam DaoduSun, October 11, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC
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Volodymyr Maksymchuk / Shutterstock.com (Volodymyr Maksymchuk / Shutterstock.com)Anthropic's Claude AI ran the XRP chart data and landed on a definitive price target to watch first, and its reasoning hinges on a Bitcoin threshold that could flip the entire outlook.Quick Read -
Claude AI gives XRP a 60% chance of dropping to $1.17 before rising to $1.70, with a December 4 target and year-end close near $1.28.
A failed golden cross and Bitcoin trading 34% below its all-time high are the primary signals driving Claude's bearish XRP outlook.
Claude flips bullish on XRP if Bitcoin closes a single week above $95,000, which would shift the odds to 60% in favor of $1.70.
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Claude, Anthropic's AI model, predicts a 60% chance that XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) will fall to $1.17 before recovering to $1.70. In a discussion with 24/7 Wall St., Claude analyzed key chart data to decide which price point XRP will hit first.
XRP is currently trading at $1.39, after an 8% drop over the last week. Analysts believe buying interest will emerge around the $1.17 level, while $1.70 is a price point it lost in September 2026.
Why XRP Traders Are Watching $1.17 and $1.70
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XRP reached an all-time high of $3.65 on July 18, 2025, after jumping from about $0.50 in early November 2024. When a cryptocurrency rises sharply and then falls, traders often measure how much of that increase it has retraced, known as a retracement. Key retracement levels, especially the Fibonacci ratios, attract significant attention because many traders monitor them.
So far, XRP has given back about 72% of its prior gains. The 61.8% retracement level is set at $1.70, which XRP fell below in September. The next target is the 78.6% level at $1.17, seen as support where buyers are likely to step in. Earlier this year, XRP hit a low of around $1.27 in August.
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Moving averages also signal price trends by tracking the average closing price over a specific number of days. In late September, XRP's 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average—a pattern known as a golden cross. This crossover signal is typically seen as bullish, yet XRP dropped from $1.51 on October 5 to $1.39 by October 9.
Why Claude AI Sees XRP Falling to $1.17 First
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In its market analysis, 24/7 Wall St. provided Claude with data showing Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trading at $83,007, 34% below its all-time high. They also noted that XRP-related funds—exchange-traded products—held $1.57 billion and experienced no daily outflows in the week to October 9. Furthermore, the XRP balance on Binance dropped by about 73 million XRP, worth approximately $101 million at $1.39, between September 26 and October 4.
Claude began its analysis by noting that $1.17 is roughly 16% below the current price, whereas $1.70 is about 21% above. This means that the lower target is closer to current trading levels.
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Next, Claude interpreted the chart patterns as indicating weak demand, especially after the recent loss of the 61.8% retracement level and the price drop following the moving-average crossover. It stated, "A bullish crossover that fails to lift price within two weeks is a sign of weak demand." Given Bitcoin's significant drop from its peak, pressure remains on larger altcoins like XRP.
Despite this, Claude acknowledged that $1.70 has a 40% chance of being reached first. It cited stablecoin holdings and Binance withdrawals as signs of accumulation, suggesting buyers are likely holding XRP. However, it noted that these signs "have not stopped the price from falling."
Claude AI's XRP Price Prediction for December and Year-End
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Claude anticipates XRP will reach $1.17 by December 4, with a year-end closing estimate of $1.28. In its outlook, Claude sees XRP testing the August low of around $1.27, with buyers pushing it back up. However, it expects the price to eventually hit $1.17 before partially rebounding to near the August low. Claude believes that ongoing fund demand will provide a support level that previous market cycles lacked.
Claude's predictions are based solely on data from 24/7 Wall St. It doesn't have access to order flow—the live record of buy and sell orders—and lacks a track record to check its calls against. Therefore, its percentages are reasoned forecasts meant to highlight which data points matter most.
What Bitcoin Price Would Flip Claude's XRP Prediction to $1.70?
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Claude indicated that a weekly closing price for Bitcoin above $95,000 would alter its outlook. A weekly close reflects Bitcoin's price at the end of a trading week, and this level would reduce Bitcoin's decline from its peak to about 25%.
If this scenario occurs, Claude would estimate a 60% likelihood that XRP would reach $1.70 first. The AI noted that XRP "has not shown it can rally against a falling Bitcoin." Although fund holdings and exchange withdrawals slightly adjusted the probabilities, Bitcoin's overall direction remains the key factor.
Will XRP Drop to $1.17 or Rise to $1.70 First?
According to Claude, XRP is more likely to reach $1.17 first (60% probability), and it expects XRP to get there by December 4. This conclusion is primarily influenced by the lower target being closer, the recent crossover failure, and Bitcoin's 34% drop from its peak.
That call holds only as long as Bitcoin stays weak. If Bitcoin finishes a week above $95,000 before XRP trades at $1.17, Claude's reasoning points toward $1.70 instead.
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Source: “AOL Money”
